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I recently returned from Taiwan and the Philippines as part of a small delegation and trip long planned by the International Crisis Group, a trip which coincidentally overlapped with President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing. From meetings with politicians current and former, with military current and former and with media, the perspectives varied, but one unsurprising conclusion abided—China looms and waits.

China’s mascots—the giant panda and the dragon—symbolize the dual power China projects into the world and particularly onto its neighbors. The panda represents peace, friendship, good fortune and is the face most commonly offered at global events, but the fire-breathing Chinese dragon is also a symbol, one of strength and imperial power.

China made clear at the summit between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump that Taiwan remained a central issue, with a “red line” or noose around the island nation that could lead to conflict if crossed. Xi apparently indicated that he was not seeking war but declared China would not tolerate Taiwan declaring independence.

A nation of 23 million people, Taiwan’s citizens live in a functioning democratic state around the size of Switzerland, with free enterprise and freedom of expression and with just 100 miles of the Taiwan Strait in the South China Sea between them and the mainland and with several Taiwanese-administered islands only a few miles off China’s coast. United by a shared ethnic, linguistic, and cultural heritage and family and economic connections, the Taiwanese and mainland Chinese are divided by governmental and economic systems—one a democracy with regular elections for leadership, the other an autocracy whose government and leadership are chosen by one party—the Chinese Communist Party whose members include only 7% of the population—one out of 15 citizens. The population of the mainland is roughly 1.4 billion people.

Few of those we spoke with expected an imminent military threat from China but acknowledged that if it came, it could be swift and would require major resistance of the population who are increasingly trained in nonviolent resistance. It is more likely the panda will continue to squeeze in a bear hug, though no one dismissed the possibility of the dragon suddenly roaring to life. While the citizens live their quotidian lives, they are aware of the threat. Their leaders continue to debate and argue the best way to negotiate relations with the mainland. All have a clear memory of what happened to Hong Kong and its loss of freedoms when mainland China took over.

The challenge for the Philippines is less existential but no less present as China challenges the sovereignty of maritime limits which the Philippines have won in international courts and which China still disputes. Both countries dispute the sovereignty of certain of the 7000 islands the Philippines claim and dispute who has sovereignty over large swaths of the South China sea where seven countries, including the Philippines and Taiwan, assert competing territorial claims.

Our trip to the two areas was brief but highlighted the vibrancy of the societies and clarified the tensions. The quiet, and sometimes not so quiet, tensions of neighbors oceans away can, as we know, send tsunami waves across the globe.